How strong is the strength of schedule theory?

Dick Vermeil had a theory -- strength of schedule is a better indicator of how a team would finish than any other stat.

Basically, the more opponents a team has with a winning percentage under .500 the year before, the better the chances of reaching the Super Bowl. The 2002-2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved this theory sound, when they went 8-0 against all teams that met that criteria. Then they won the Super Bowl.

Of course, one could argue that playing a stronger schedule and winning makes for a better overall team. But according to Vermeil, it's precisely those games against better opponents where injuries occur, resulting in weakened teams.

Common sense, I guess. Interesting theory, regardless.

So we took a quick look at the strength of schedule for the upcoming season and -- SURPRISE -- the Steelers own the toughest schedule in 2008. They face eight teams that made the playoffs last year and their opponents have an overall winning percentage of 598. That's pretty hefty.

Who owns the weakest schedule? Another surprise, it's the Patriots. They play just four teams that made the playoffs in 2007, and their opponents have an incredibly weak .387. One would expect the AFC champs to have a tougher time of it but they are in a very weak division, even with Favre on this side of the time zone.

If your curious, the defending Super Bowl champs -- the Giants -- are ranked 15 in schedule strength, face teams with a combined 2007 winning percentage of .520 and play 6 games against playoff teams (two each against the Cowboys and Redskins plus the Steelers and Seahawks). But each team in that division has the same kind of schedule and that's why they are ranked 13th (Dallas), 14 (Washington), 15th (New York) and 16th (Philadelphia).

What does all this mean? If Vermeil's theory holds true, Patriots beat the Chargers in the AFC title game while the Saints beat the Falcons. While we like the Saints and the AFC matchup, there's no way the Falcons make that kind of run with a rookie QB.

So, let's modify those picks a bit. We'll go with Chargers beating the Patriots in the AFC championship game while the Saints top the Vikings in the NFC. Yeah, I know, the Vikings rank fifth in strength of schedule, but they are very, very close to winning it all.

Chargers are Super Bowl champs, despite losing Merriman (it's only a matter of time).

You heard it here first.